{"id":836592,"date":"2024-09-23T05:00:48","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T10:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/?p=836592"},"modified":"2024-09-20T12:42:11","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T17:42:11","slug":"getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/","title":{"rendered":"Getting Your Church Recession Ready Without Killing Your Ministry"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I am not an economist.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">J.P. Morgan Research <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.jpmorgan.com\/insights\/global-research\/economy\/recession-probability\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">increased the recession probability<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Here is the bottom line: There is a 50\/50 chance you need to budget for a recession in 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">I know, that\u2019s not helpful. Basically, the economists are saying anything can happen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since 1950, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 6.5 years on average. These recessions have varied in duration, lasting anywhere from two to 18 months, with the average recession lasting around ten months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What Happens to Charitable Giving During a Recession?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, the drops are not drastic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S016517651000354X\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One study<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> found that charitable giving is more sensitive to economic upturns than economic downturns, meaning economic booms were more likely to increase donations than recessions were likely to reduce them.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But is this trend changing? Maybe. Charitable giving declined by 11% ($59B) in 2022. It was the biggest annual decline on record, surpassing the drop of the Great Recession from 2008 and 2009. Then charitable giving increased by 11% in 2023 ($58B) but is still just short of the all-time high of $558B in 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Are we at an inflection point with a potential downward trend in our future? Or will the upward trend of charitable giving continue? It\u2019s anyone\u2019s guess.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"557\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-836599\" src=\"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Charitable-Giving-768x557.jpg\" alt=\"Charitable Giving\" srcset=\"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Charitable-Giving-768x557.jpg 768w, https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Charitable-Giving-400x290.jpg 400w, https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Charitable-Giving-650x472.jpg 650w, https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Charitable-Giving.jpg 966w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It\u2019s important to note the difference between charitable giving and donations to churches. For decades, the church has lost ground with overall charitable giving.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Giving to churches has dropped even though giving to non-profits is up.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the early 1980s, churches received over half of all charitable giving.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Today, churches receive less than a third of all charitable giving.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charitable giving is on the rise in the United States, but churches are receiving a smaller and smaller portion. People who give see the church as merely one option among many places to give.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>The Real Culprit: Inflation!<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charities are encountering increasing costs, and as the economy deteriorates, many will experience a surge in demand for their services. Although recessions don\u2019t always result in a drop in donations, the actual value of funds available to charities is diminishing due to increased expenses caused by inflation.<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Personnel costs are up.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Operating expenses are up.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Deferred maintenance is getting more expensive.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\" aria-level=\"1\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mission partners need more funds.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While revenue is up for some churches, it\u2019s often not keeping pace with increasing expenses. For example, income is up in many homes, but not at the same pace as the increasing costs to feed and care for children\u2014a common theme found across the United States with many families.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>How You Can Prepare for a Potential Recession<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What should you do? Even if we don\u2019t experience a technical recession, inflationary pressures remain. Your church could feel the pinch of the devaluation of the dollar.<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"list-style-type: none;\">\n<ol>\n<li><b>Be willing to stretch your personnel costs slightly beyond the 45% to 55% range.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The longtime rule of thumb is 50% of a church\u2019s budget should be dedicated to personnel. This rule still holds true generally, but you might need to stretch an extra percentage or two in order to accommodate the cost-of-living increases among church staff.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Limit any new debt or personnel costs and wait until rates drop more.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> For churches already feeling the pressure of inflation, now is not the time to roll the dice with additional debt or place stress on the personnel budget with an extra hire.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Do not count on significant increases in giving.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Budget your revenue from 2024. Unless your church shows signs of substantial growth, I would be more conservative with budget increases.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>For cash flow purposes, ensure you understand the timing of your expenses.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> At my church, our giving dips slightly in the summer while expenses go up with camps, VBS, and neighborhood ministry. We know in advance that a slight cushion is needed by spring to cash flow in the summer.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Challenge your people more, not less, during a recession.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Remember, silence about giving will lead to apathy about giving. You don\u2019t get unless you ask. Spiritual warfare starts in the bank account. Congregants often stop giving first before other areas of faithfulness begin to slip.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Downsize or eliminate luxuries that deplete cash flow.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> You may need to cut that weeklong staff retreat or the expensive, big-name conference speaker.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><b>Build a reserve line item into your budget.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Many churches do not have a contingency fund for unforeseen expenses. A church should have about three months of expenses set aside for emergencies. Start building this fund through your operating budget. In essence, you pay yourself with this tactic. As funds come into the operating budget, a portion is set aside for the contingency fund.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">You can plan wisely without sacrificing the heart of your ministry. Your church can weather a potential recession while fulfilling its mission and serving your community faithfully.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I am not an economist. But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession? J.P. Morgan Research increased the recession probability by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%. Here is the&#8230;","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":836598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"publish_to_discourse":"0","publish_post_category":"1","wpdc_auto_publish_overridden":"","wpdc_topic_tags":"","wpdc_pin_topic":"","wpdc_pin_until":"","discourse_post_id":"","discourse_permalink":"","wpdc_publishing_response":"","wpdc_publishing_error":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[193,1,184,182,190,175,177,14796,180],"tags":[19539,107,19541,19540,19054,19538],"class_list":["post-836592","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-administration-and-finance","category-church-answers","category-discipleship","category-facilities","category-family","category-grow","category-lead","category-monday-wednesday-featured","category-outreach-and-evangelism","tag-charitable-giving","tag-church","tag-how-you-can-prepare-for-a-potential-recession","tag-inflation","tag-ministry","tag-recession-ready"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Getting Your Church Recession Ready Without Killing Your Ministry | Church Answers<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"I am not an economist. But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession? J.P. Morgan Research increased the recession probability by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%.Here is the bottom line: There is a 50\/50 chance you need to budget for a recession in 2025.I know, that\u2019s not helpful. Basically, the economists are saying anything can happen. Since 1950, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 6.5 years on average. These recessions have varied in duration, lasting anywhere from two to 18 months, with the average recession lasting around ten months.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Getting Your Church Recession Ready Without Killing Your Ministry | Church Answers\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I am not an economist. But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession? J.P. Morgan Research increased the recession probability by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%.Here is the bottom line: There is a 50\/50 chance you need to budget for a recession in 2025.I know, that\u2019s not helpful. Basically, the economists are saying anything can happen. Since 1950, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 6.5 years on average. 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These recessions have varied in duration, lasting anywhere from two to 18 months, with the average recession lasting around ten months.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Getting Your Church Recession Ready Without Killing Your Ministry | Church Answers","og_description":"I am not an economist. But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession? J.P. Morgan Research increased the recession probability by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%.Here is the bottom line: There is a 50\/50 chance you need to budget for a recession in 2025.I know, that\u2019s not helpful. 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But I am a pastor who must plan a church budget for 2025. What are the odds of a recession? J.P. Morgan Research increased the recession probability by year-end 2024 from 25% to 35%. Other economists put the likelihood of a recession by year-end 2025 around 45%.Here is the bottom line: There is a 50\/50 chance you need to budget for a recession in 2025.I know, that\u2019s not helpful. Basically, the economists are saying anything can happen. Since 1950, the United States has experienced a recession approximately every 6.5 years on average. These recessions have varied in duration, lasting anywhere from two to 18 months, with the average recession lasting around ten months.","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Economic-downturn-broken-graph-recession.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/Economic-downturn-broken-graph-recession.png","width":1200,"height":628,"caption":"Economic downturn broken graph recession"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/getting-your-church-recession-ready-without-killing-your-ministry\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Getting Your Church Recession Ready Without Killing Your Ministry"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/","name":"Church Answers","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/#\/schema\/person\/2f0912bee8a19725429a51e837b0b4bd","name":"Sam Rainer","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8911395b33b01cf015954e64ffa6595812addf41f7aa42dad5156c5438379dc3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8911395b33b01cf015954e64ffa6595812addf41f7aa42dad5156c5438379dc3?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Sam Rainer"},"description":"As President of Church Answers, Sam Rainer wears many hats. From podcast co-host to full-time Pastor at West Bradenton Baptist Church, Sam\u2019s heart for ministry and revitalization are evident in all he does.","url":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/blog\/author\/samrainer\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/836592","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=836592"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/836592\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":836602,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/836592\/revisions\/836602"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/836598"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=836592"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=836592"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/churchanswers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=836592"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}